Perspective PowerTM - The Overconfidence Spiral
Here’s an important message for all my experienced readers. Ready, alpha team? Here goes: You think you’re right more often than you actually are. Experience has bestowed upon you an amazing ability to defend your points of view; even when you’re utterly wrong!
And, the longer you’ve been on the job, the more weapons you carry to defend your position to the death. You can even toss in a smattering of industry jargon to further assert your expertise. In fact, as you wield your experience like a sword of truth, you’re so unbelievably believable you even convince yourself! Whereupon you unwittingly tumble headlong into an Overconfidence Spiral.
Whatever the issue, the more you believe you’re right, the more you’ll argue your point. And so, the more you’ll believe you’re right. And so, the more you’ll argue. And so on, round-and-round the greased slide, until (left unchecked) you disappear up your own backside.
Unfortunately, while trapped in an Overconfidence Spiral, it won’t cross your mind to flex your Perspective PowerTM and seek fresh viewpoints. Instead, brimming with jaw-dropping overconfidence, you’ll dismiss every counterargument way too quickly. And all the benefits of flexing your Perspective PowerTM (razor-sharp thinking, high emotional intelligence and consistent, explosive success) will remain an unfulfilled promise.
Falling into Overconfidence spirals also compromises your authority and leadership. Persuasive leaders share a genuine interest in all points of view. And so appearing disinterested in other people’s opinions dilutes your influence within your organization.
What’s more as leadership guru Warren Bennis has pointed out, at least seven out of ten employees admit to keeping quiet when their opinions are at odd with their superiors. And so, if your experience comes gift-wrapped with prestige, subordinates won’t even point out that you’re talking rubbish. At least, not to your face! Eventually, stuck and alone on a stale plateau, you’ll become a victim of your own limited viewpoint.
The Nature Of Experience
By definition, experience refines your thinking towards a set of principles that worked yesterday. Most of these principles will still serve you today, some will not. However, unless you rigorously challenge your own viewpoint, you risk remaining as intellectually invested in the principles that no longer serve you as in those that still do; and equally prepared to defend them. This lack of distinction, which lies at the core of the Overconfidence Spiral, leads to complacency and stagnation.
Remember, in your rapidly changing world, the risk of defending a redundant perspective explodes exponentially. And, you won’t solve the toughest of tomorrow’s challenges with yesterday’s solutions.
The Value Of Experience
Don’t misunderstand me, acquiring experience is vital for your success. Experienced people are able to act effectively and efficiently; especially when unexpected complications arise.
However, it’s precisely because experience often serves us well that we become overconfident. Experienced people are far too quick to assume they see the broad sweep of an issue. Every byte of fresh data pertaining to their area of expertise is treated as if it were a piece from a jigsaw puzzle; slotted into a position defined by the ‘big picture’ on the box.
The Value Of Inexperience
Inexperienced people are much less likely to argue themselves into an Overconfidence Spiral and therefore more apt to spot novel, idea-generating perspectives. Inexperience engenders a willingness to ask questions, break ‘rules’ and draw ideas from outside an organization’s frames of reference.
In their book—Ideas Are Free—Alan G. Robinson and Dean M. Schroeder report that companies who routinely rotate employees between departments frequently observe that an employee’s lack of experience with a new department correlates with more new ideas. As a rule, innovation is greatest when experience is lacking. As our expertise grows, we become less likely to engage in paradigm-changing activities.
However, all is not lost. The key is to deeply appreciate that the more experience you’ve acquired on a subject, the more personal bias influences your view towards it. Then, instead of allowing years of experience to fix your point of view, see it as a source of raw material from which to flex your Perspective PowerTM. However, it’s important to realize that breaking free from ‘experience-induced’ preconceptions can be tough.
Einstein, What A Dummy!
We tend to think of Albert Einstein as an older man with wild white hair; the archetypal ‘mad professor’ scientist. In truth, he formulated his most revolutionary theories as a relatively in- experienced young man. As he aged, even Einstein’s visionary outlook was narrowed by overconfidence.
For example, experience told Einstein that the universe couldn’t be expanding. And so—even though this position required him to use a mathematical ‘fudge factor’ in many of his equations—for many years Einstein rejected the Big-Bang theory.
An Italian physicist and priest called Georges Lemaître, disagreed. In a world-class high dive into an Overconfidence Spiral, Einstein disparaged Lemaître’s physics as ‘Abominable’. Eventually—in an historic meeting between Einstein, Lemaître and Edwin Hubble (of Hubble telescope fame)—Einstein was forced to eat crow and concede the point.
Bottom line: All of us, no matter how brilliant, are vulnerable to Overconfidence Spirals.
Avoiding Overconfidence Spirals
Are you currently enmeshed in any Overconfidence Spirals? What is your experience preventing you from seeing? Here’s one of several Perspective PowerTM strategies designed to prevent you falling into Overconfidence Spirals…
Reverse the Statements/Questions Ratio
When you’re experienced, people come to you seeking answers. As a result, you make more statements and ask less questions. And so, another way to avoid Overconfidence Spirals is to reverse this trend. For example: Instead of stating: ‘This project should be finished today!’ Try asking: ‘What should we do today to get this project finished?’
